ENGLAND
England is the only country to still have all teams active – there are nine of them into the last 16 across the three competitions.
It will be very hard for England to throw it away from this position, even with Tottenham and Liverpool losing in the first leg of the Champions League last 16.
But nothing should be completely taken for granted, as England seemed destined to get an EPS slot in 2023-24 only to suffer a terrible set of results in the quarter-finals.
As a picture of how far England is ahead, German clubs are effectively 16 wins behind, for Spanish sides it is 19 wins. Then for the Italian teams it is 18 victories.
GERMANY
The Bundesliga is well placed to take an EPS slot alongside England with five of its seven teams active.
Germany’s chances have been aided by its four teams in the Champions League and Europa League being placed in opposite sides of the brackets. It means they cannot meet until the final.
Bayern look sure to progress in the Champions League after winning 6-1 at Atalanta.
SPAIN
With eight teams in Europe, Spain needed to have a strong campaign.
Chances were severely damaged by Villarreal and Athletic Club’s Champions League elimination.
While Spain has six teams still active going into the last 16, as it had eight teams to start with, each win is worth less to the coefficient than those of their rivals for second place.
Atletico Madrid and Barcelona could meet in the Champions League quarter-finals, plus Celta Vigo and Real Betis in the Europa League semis. This could affect their chances.
With three England v Spain fixtures in the Champions League last 16, La Liga is going to have to do it the hard way.
But wins for Atletico (v Tottenham) and a draw for Barcelona (at Newcastle) means they are definitely still in contention.
ITALY
Serie A has lost three of its seven teams and now only has a slim chance of making the top two.
Bologna and Roma will face each other in the Europa League last 16, so another team will go out.
With Atalanta losing heavily at home to Bayern in the Champions League, it is looking like a three-horse race for the two spots.
PORTUGAL
Portugal’s chances of making the top two were effectively over when Santa Clara were knocked out of the Conference League in the qualifying rounds.
It still has three teams active but will need all of them to go deep to trouble the top two.
POLAND
It will come as a surprise to many to find Poland so high up in the table, and that it was in the top two for a while. But Poland does not have a realistic chance.
All four of the country’s teams have been playing in the Conference League, while over a third of its points were picked up in the qualifying rounds.
Its final two teams are in the same half of the bracket.
FRANCE
It has been a disappointing season for Ligue 1 teams, starting with Nice’s failure to make it through Champions League qualifying.
It did not get much better from there for Nice, as they were then eliminated from the Europa League.
France does have four teams still active but seems unlikely to bridge the gap.
GREECE
Greece has only two teams left in Europe so will not be able to mount a challenge.
No other country has a mathematical chance of the top two.
